In nine days, Nigerians will return to their polling units to elect
governors and lawmakers. Expectedly, the April 11 governorship and
Houses of Assembly elections will have more local appeal than last
Saturday’s presidential and National Assembly elections.
Political parties have put the outcome of the March 28 behind them
even as the winners bask in the euphoria of their victories and the
bruised, lick their wounds. That notwithstanding, the parties and their
candidates are back on the campaign fields, marketing their manifestoes
ahead of the polls.
One thing seems certain. It is the fact that the victory of Gen.
Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) at last
Saturday’s election will shape the elections on April 11 and effectively
determine where the political pendulum swings.
Historically, in Nigeria, where the central remains very strong than
the federating units, once a president emerges, any election conducted
afterwards is a fait accompli. The voters are often gripped by the fear of being in the opposition.
The Buhari/Osinbajo ticket fetched the opposition APC 15,424,921
votes from 21 states, cutting across the Southwest, Northwest,
Northcentral and Northeast to dislodge incumbent President Goodluck
Jonathan and his duputy, Namadi Sambo, whose Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) polled 12, 853,162 votes from 15 states and the Federal Capital
Territory (FCT). The PDP won all the 11 states in the Southsouth and the
Southeast, three in the Northcentral and one in the Southwest.
Bandwagon effect
Going by elections’ historical trends, a shift is expected in the
voting pattern of states that were won by the ruling party on April 11
as the factors that accounted for the PDP victory will no longer be
there.
For instance, the five states in the Southeast – Abia, Anambra,
Ebonyi, Imo and Enugu – gave block votes to the PDP and the six
Southsouth states of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, Delta, Cross River and
Rivers gave it to the ruling party, believing that President Jonathan
would win the election and that the ruling party will form the next
government.
With the overall results in favour of the APC, the states may be in
the opposition beginning from May, should they retain that voting
pattern at the April 11 polls. Looking at the map of Nigeria, Ekiti is
the only state in the Southwest geo-political zone that may be in the
opposition in the next political dispensation.
In 1983, the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) re-ordered the
election timetable. The Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO) as the
Independent National Electoral Commision (INEC) was then known, began
with the Presidential election and it was a moon’s slide victory for the
ruling (NPN). The National Assembly, governorship and House of Assembly
elections that followed were mere walkover for the ruling party.
The main opposition party – the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) lost its
grip on the states that were under its control since 1979. The states
were: the old Oyo and the old Bendel
The Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) lost the old Anambra to the ruling
party which also dislodged the Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) from
the old Borno and the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) from Kaduna.
But the moon’s slide victory of the NPN was short-circuited as the
military struck on the eve of 1983 to abort the Second Republic. The
military intervention was to prevent anarchy as the NPN victory sparked
protests in some parts of the country, especially in the West, where the
people believed the polls were skewed in favour of the ruling party.
Twenty years after, the election timetable was again reordered and
once the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won the presidential and
majority seats in the National Assembly elections, the governorship and
House of Assembly elections were straight wins for the PDP. The ruling
party defeated the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in its Southwest
stronghold. All the six states in the zone, except Lagos, fell to the
PDP. The All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) suffered similar fate in the
North.
History beckons
Since Independence, the Southwest has been indifferent to the
government at the central. The people in the zone have always pitched
tent with the progressives, and ironically, the progressives never had
the opportunity of winning the presidency until last Saturday. The
primary concern of the Southwest has been to elect leaders who will
develop the region. The desire to belong to the party at the federal
largely accounted for the victory of the PDP in Ekiti State. Now that
the progressives have won the presidency, analysts believe the people
will detest being the lone voice in the wilderness. They hope the
outcome of the April 11 polls will be a departure from what they were on
June 21, 2014 and March 28.
In the Southsouth and the Southeast, where almost all the PDP
governors will be completing their two-term tenure next month, the
desire to guarantee soft-landing will shape the voting pattern. Besides,
the fact that some of the governors are on their way out of power, the
voters may decide to take their fate into their own hands to chose who
they want as the governors and representatives in the Houses of
Assembly.
It is an indisputable fact that both the Southsouth and the Southeast
have always showed their hatred for being in the opposition. They have,
since 1960, forged alliances with the North, a region that has always
maintained a hold on the central. The defeat of President Jonathan,
their preferred candidate, and the need to avoid unnecessary friction
with the Federal Government will shape the voting pattern in the zones
on April 11.
Federal might
Despite the deployment of federal might in the states, especially
those under the PDP control, the results of last Saturday’s elections
clearly showed that the wish of Nigerians for change was not subverted.
So, it is unlikely that a ruling party that has lost steam and its
bearing will wield still enormous influence on the people.
Militarisation of election
If the complaints of Governors Adams Oshiomhole (Edo) and Rotimi
Amaechi (Rivers), are anything to go by, the security operatives
deployed in those two Southsouth states compromised their oath of office
by being partial to one of the parties. The military is yet to learn
from the mistakes of Brig-Gen Aliyu Momoh, who allegedly took orders
from PDP chieftains to compromise the integrity of the June 21
governorship election in Ekiti State. The soldiers and senior police
officers who were on election duty allegedly colluded with the ruling
party to ensure that the political climate was inclement for the
opposition to participate.
In Edo State for instance, a senior military personnel was allegedly
detained for refusing to do the biddings of a PDP chieftain. Governor
Oshomhole expressed frustrations after his attempts to get across to the
police commissioner for intervention failed. He claimed that a promoter
of a private television station stormed the state with full military
protection and allowed to move about during the elections.
The reasonable thing for any officer deployed in those states is to
maintain neutrality and create a level playing ground for all parties on
April 11. Any officer on duty will henceforth be cautious in their
conduct and they will not hesitate to rein in any overzealous
subordinate.
Resident Electoral Commissioners.
Despite the unbiased position of Prof Attahiru Jega, the Chairman of
the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), some high-ranking
officials of the body are yet to shed the toga of partisanship. They
still compromise their positions. But with change of baton, such
officers will be more careful and carry out their duties without
partiality.
In Akwa Ibom, the INEC officials took orders from Governor Godswill
Akpabio on how to conduct the elections. After accreditation of voters,
the expectation was that voting would commence, but there was nothing
like that. Rather, the INEC officials relocated from the polling
stations and thumb printed the ballot at an undisclosed location
believed to have been provided by the state government. They filled the
result sheets only to return to the units to read the results.
After meeting with the President yesterday, Akpabio told State House
reporters that the PDP will maintain its lead and retain the states
under its control after the April 11 polls.
But APC leaders accused him of relying on rigging. They said Akpabio
was banking on manipulation and wondered how a governor, who failed to
win a senatorial district will deliver a whole state.
As it was in Akwa Ibom, so also was it in Rivers State where the
residents are insisting that voting never took place in the state. The
governorship candidate of the APC, Dr. Peterside Dakuku and Senator
Magnus Abe echoed the peoples complaints in their protest at the INEC
office, where the police gave protection for the collation of results of
elections that never took place. Governor Rotimi Amaechi was told he
had no right to demand for the result sheets. The INEC officer said it
was wrong of any voter to ask for such document, especially when he was
not a party agent and when balloting had not even started.
The question to ask is: Will the electoral officers and the police
chiefs be so brazen on April 11, when Nigerians return to choose
governors and assemblymen?